by: Nakajin
Week 7 saw the playoff race between mid-table teams intensify, as Platinum Heroes overtook Mystery Gaming for the 7th place spot. The competition for the final playoff spot will only grow more fierce in the remaining weeks, with Platinum Heroes, Mystery Gaming, Twisted Fairy, and perhaps even Berserker eSports looking like they have a shot of making the postseason.
However, it's the playoff 'locked' teams that are the center of attention in the upcoming Week 8, as we have a pair of blockbuster matches on the schedule. Team Liquid and Weibo Gaming will square off on Friday, while Shopify and BASILISK (with Serral showing up yet again) are set for a Sunday showdown.
Week7 Recap
Top 7 teams qualify for the playoffs.
Bottom 2 teams must requalify.
Points are awarded as follows:
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Shopify took care of business as expected against OFFSYDE, maintaining their 3rd place spot in the standings.
uThermal had a real chance to pull off the upset against ByuN in the opening frame, with both his initial Reaper-Hellion poke and follow-up 2-Starport push finding vulnerabilities in ByuN's defense. Unfortunately, uThermal couldn't fully capitalize on these opportunities, and ByuN was able to slowplay his mech into a mid-game win. ByuN had an easier time in the second game, jumping on uThermal's reckless siege tank advance to take the 2-0.
Lambo dealt with Rex's ZvZ insanity much better than Reynor had the week before, parrying a 2-base Nydus all-in and then a 12-pool Speedling all-in to take the 4-0. Hopefully the mad scientist will manage to concoct a successful experiment against a top player this season.
Harstem and Firefly traded maps to close out the day, where the most notable event was Firefly's inexplicable ceremony where he pretended to die from drinking some Assam tea(?????).
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Platinum Heroes got an important win over Starlight Twinkle, nudging them just ahead of Mystery Gaming (who would lose to Weibo Gaming on the week) for the 7th place spot in the standings.
Goblin and Wayne started things off on Dynasty with a gold-base powered match. Wayne was the aggressor for most of the game, looking to crack Goblins defenses with Ling-Bane, then Mutas, and then mass Roach-Ravager-Bane. Goblin weathered these attacks reasonably well and seemed to be in position to enter deathball assembly mode, but exposed himself to more attacks after a wild move out onto Creep. Wayne took full advantage of the situation by bludgeoning the Protoss army and counterattacking for the win. Game 2 was less eventful, with Goblin hunkering down on defense until he had a game-winning Carrier deathball.
ShaDoWn and Krystianer proceeded to tie their PvP, with ShaDoWn winning in a drawn-out Gateway unit slugfest on Amphion, while Krystianer got his point back by holding off a one-base all-in.
With the series all square headed into the final series, Kelazhur closed it out for his team (or his "client" if we're using mercenary parlance) with a 2-0 over Cham. Game one was quite the entertaining bout that saw Kelazhur's Battlecruiser-mech triumph over Cham's Swarm Hosts and assorted Zerg tricks. Game two players delivered more action, albeit in a more conventional way, with Kelazhur's Marine-Tank overpowering Cham's Muta-Ling-Bane.
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The rematch of last season's playoff classic was considerably less memorable, as a full strength BASILISK overpowered TL.
Sandwiched between his HSC finals run and his qualification for the EWC, ShoWTimE had a strong showing in the WTL as well by 2-0'ing fellow Eurotoss SKillous. ShoWTimE won the mass Gateway units war in game one, while he shut down SKillous' Adept-Immortal all-in in game two.
Reynor kept the ball rolling against Clem, surprising him with a clever Zergling-Queen drop opener on Amphion to make it 3-0 for BASILISK. Clem did much better in a standard macro game on Ghost River to split the series against Reynor, but it still left TL in a dire position with Serral vs Cure coming up.
Serral made sure there would be no surprises on the day, as he closed out with the expected 2-0. A Hellbat timing in game one piqued my interest for a moment, but Serral cleaned it up without taking too much damage. That ended up being the most suspenseful moment of the entire series, as Serral proceeded to pick up two routine macro wins (though the game one took quite a while due to it being on Goldenaura).
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Twisted Fairy's playoff aspirations took a big blow as they failed to earn any points from a relatively winnable series against fellow mid-table team PSISTORM-NAVI (although, with the loss, TF aren't really "mid-table" anymore).
Nice was hoping to start this series with a bang on Dynasty, taking advantage of the map to execute a weird version of a proxy Void-Ray attack from behind Spirit's gold base. Unfortunately, Nice's build was rather slow and seemed somewhat unoptimized, which allowed Spirit to win easily by just A-moving Cyclones and Marines. Nice went with macro in game two, and got into a decent mid-game position thanks to a strong Phoenix-Chargelot timing. But, in the end, he couldn't stop Spirit from assembling an army of 3/3 infantry and Ghosts to collect the second GG.
MaxPax proved his PvP prowess against Stats, taking home the three points for his team with a 2-0. Game one came down to a chaotic basetrade on Amphion, where Stats ended up paying the price for taking an exposed left-side base. Game two started off looking amazing for Stats, as MaxPax left his front door open and suffered seven early Probe losses to a pair of Adepts. However, MaxPax flipped the situation by baiting Stats' defending Stalkers into a Stasis Trap, allowing his own Stalkers to win the game-deciding fight despite being outnumbered.
Classic recovered some map score points for his team by sweeping Gerald, but considering the shape of the standings, it may end up being pure consolation in the end.
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Vitality continued to roll against the outmatched Berserker, extending their WTL winning streakto 14 straight matches.
Despite the overall outcome, the match actually started okay for Berserker as DnS defeated Ryung on Dynasty. After a lengthy macro game, Ryung pulled the trigger on an ambitious flanking attack against a Protoss army with mass Disruptors. Unfortunately for Ryung, he couldn't get on top of the Disruptors, and the game was decided after most of his army was purified.
That was the last glimmer of hope for Berserker as Vitality proceeded to take five straight maps. Ryung started it off by tying his series with DnS, opening up a wound with a 2-base Marine-Tank-Banshee push and continuing to attack until DnS couldn't withstand the pain anymore.
Next, GunGFuBanDa had a depressing time against Maru, losing twice against early Widow Mine aggression. Solar and BattleB slowed the pace down on Goldenaura, and Solar ultimately closed the series out for his team with some methodical late-game play. BattleB tried his best to recover a map with an 8-Rax all-in on Dynasty, but Solar's backdoor attacks caused too much of a delay for it to succeed.
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Mystery Gaming took advantage of some favorable match-ups to steal a point from the formidable Weibo Gaming, keeping themselves within a point of Platinum Heroes in the playoff race.
Strange drew first blood for MYGAG on Dynasty, getting away with a Nexus-first opener at his gold base and hitting a fast Chargelot-Immortal-Archon timing behind it. soO gave a better account of himself on Post-Youth, establishing his gold and burying Strange under a mountain of Zerglings, Banelings, and Ravagers.
Cyan became the latest SC2 player to attempt the "lateral name change" move, abandoning Cyan in favor of "Lancer" after a decade under his previous ID. The change seemed to bring him good luck in game one against Jieshi, as he won a basetrade due to Jieshi getting caught without any Observers against DT's. Fortune favored Lancer/Cyan in game two as well, as he overcame a failed proxy-Stargate to win in a conventional Zealot-Stalker game.
With Weibo's back against the wall, herO stayed resolute against two rounds of early game aggression from Coffee to take the 2-0 and force an ace match. Rather than trying their luck at a PvP, MYGAG gave Coffee a third look at herO. Coffee went for some early Liberator-Tank-Marine pressure, which herO successfully staved off with his Phoenixes. However, Coffee's real attack was yet to come, as he gathered an even larger force of assorted Terran units for a committed push. herO stayed composed in this dicey situation, as he gave up his third base while he waited to amass more ground units. Once he was ready, herO broke through Coffee's containment line with his superior ground force and counterattacked to win it for Weibo.
Weekly MVP: 
WBG.herO
WBG.herOSecond place Weibo Gaming were in a tricky situation against the humble MYGAG before herO rescued them with three straight wins against Coffee. While somewhat predictable, Coffee's aggression has tripped up plenty of players in the WTL, and it was impressive to see herO stay calm and composed in each bout. His performance on Crimson Court stood out in particular, where he needed to execute some precise defensive positioning to survive. Overall, it was a weekly MVP-worthy performance to keep Weibo Gaming near the top of the standings.
Weekly MVP's:
- WBG.herO
- Week 6: SR.ByuN
- Week 5: BASILISK.Reynor
- Week 4: MYG.Cyan
- Week 3: SR.Scarlett
- Week 2: OG.Firefly
- Week 1: SLT.Krystianer
Preview: Regular Season Week 8
Thursday, Jul 11 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches
Starlight Twinkle vs Berserker eSports
As the league's 10th and 11th teams, this week's match will be crucial for Berserker and SLT's futures in the league.
Krystianer against DnS is a bit of an enigma. One the one hand, the SLT player is looking much better these days (94-35 in 2024) compared to DNS (19-19), but DnS's WTL record (8-7) compares favorably to Krystianer (6-10). When in doubt in a PvP, settle for the 1-1.
Wayne and BattleB have both had difficult WTL campaigns so far, but I'm giving Wayne the advantage. At least Wayne has a history of coming through with big wins and draws for his teams in the past, whereas BattleB is not quite as accomplished.
As for Cham and GunGFuBanDa, I won't even entertain the idea of making a 'rational' prediction. Sometimes GFBD is on his game and looks amazing, and sometimes he just faceplants. The same goes for Cham, who has the added randomness factor of his aggressive builds.
It's a difficult match to predict, but I'll say it's SLT by a sliver.
Prediction: Starlight Twinkle 4 - 3 Berserker eSports
Team Liquid vs Weibo Gaming
Our second Friday match is looking like the marquee match of the week.
Cure and herO are closing in on 100 matches against each other over the last decade, and their record is roughly even during that span. While herO's PvT is looking very sharp, Cure has gotten the better of him when they've clashed in major tournaments (with cheese playing a big part). This one is looking like a 1-1 tie.
SKillous vs soO could go either way, with the two inconsistent players having shown both great and awful games in recent months. Still, when you compare them side by side, SKillous seems to have a higher base level of play, and he should get by soO unless the WBG Zerg has a sudden burst of inspiration.
Finally, Oliveira and Clem face off in a clash between the two best foreign Terrans. After Oliveira's fantastic performance at DreamHack Dallas, one could even make the case that he has surpassed Clem to become the best in the foreign scene at the moment. While Oliveira is the craftier player, Clem tends to have the upper hand if games play out standard. Going by their 22-20 map record since 2023 and two previous draws in WTL, this one should be as close as they get.
If the series goes the distance, I expect Weibo to field Oliveira over herO to avoid Clem's TvP (although TL could call the bluff with Cure). The longer a series goes between Oliveira and Clem, the more I favor Clem and TL.
Prediction: Team Liquid 4 - 3 Weibo Gaming
Friday, Jul 12 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches
Platinum Heroes-R8 vs Mystery Gaming-All Gamers
A battle of aces should decide this week's mid-table match. Lancer/Cyan probably has the slight practice and form advantage from his month-long sprint to try and secure an EWC spot, but ultimately things are too close between these two for me to predict anything but a 1-1.
Strange vs YoungYakov is another even match-up, with the two Russian players having played plenty of head-to-head matches in the recent past. Strange dominated initially, but YoungYakov has brought the record back toward even in recent months. This one looks like yet another 1-1.
MYG's big edge is in the third match, where Coffee will face Goblin. While Coffee couldn't crack herO's shell last week, his aggressive style remains very dangerous against most WTL Protosses—even when they know he has something cooking. I predict Coffee will make the difference and give MYGAG the win.
Prediction: Mystery Gaming-AG 4 - 2 Platinum Heroes-R8
Vitality vs PSISTORM Gaming-NAVII
Vitality drew a back-loaded schedule this season, and their stretch of more challenging opponents begins this week as they go up against PSISTORM. Fortunately for Vitality, they've drawn advantageous match-ups that make a routine victory seem like the most likely result.
Solar will open against Gerald, a player he has a devastating 34-1 record against. Solar hasn't suffered a major WTL upset in quite a while, and it sure doesn't seem like Gerald is the one who's gonna break that streak.
Maru's dominance in WTL is starting to feel a bit absurd, and I fail to see how Spirit will be the one who brings the TvT master back down to earth. Yes, Spirit is in fantastic form at the moment—possibly the best of his career. However, he has a 6% career map win-rate against Maru, and I'm not sure how much of that can be mitigated by his improvement. On a side note, this match has an unusual twist, as these two are matched up as first-round opponents at the Esports World Cup.
As for PSISTORM ace MaxPax, he has received Vitality's poisoned gift of Ryung. If the match isn’t already over by this point, it's not like MaxPax will have an easy time getting a 2-0. With Post-Youth as the opening map and possibly Crimson Court in Ryung's back pocket, this one screams of a 1-1 upset.
If Gerald and Spirit could swap places, I would be a lot more positive about PSISTORM's chances. But as things stand, I'm favoring Vitality in every match-up, with Solar and Maru sweeping while Ryung holds MaxPax to a draw.
Prediction: Vitality 5 - 1 PSISTORM-NAVI
Saturday, Jul 13 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches
OFFSYDE Esports vs Twisted Fairy
Big Gabe has cleared his waiting period and is officially eligible to play as a mercenary for OFFSYDE! He arrives at a timely juncture, as OFFSYDE desperately need to win this match to avoid relegation.
The first match features two mainstays of the Taiwanese scene, with Nice having the historic upper hand against Rex. However, it's not like Rex has been totally buried, as he's beaten Nice twice in 2024 and tied him back in WTL Code A. I’m very tempted to look at those results as flukes, but maybe I'm underestimating Rex. In any case, it should be a hugely fun match between two familiar opponents with a penchant for unusual strategies.
Stats' WTL woes (3-11) are the biggest reason why Twisted Fairy have fallen below expectations this season. As more time passes, his Code S RO4 run in Season 1 feels more and more like a fluke, but true believers haven't given up hope in a Stats revival quite yet. As for Firefly, his PvP has been merely passable in the WTL, but that might be enough to take down Stats in his current WTL form.
HeroMarine has been assigned a tough cover in his debut WTL match, facing Twisted Fairy's ace player Classic. While the Chintoss might be inconsistent in other competitions, he's been playing great in the WTL with a 12-3 record this season (just a map behind herO as the second best Protoss of the league). Big Gabe's TvP might have towered over Europe for years, but I expect Classic to put up a great fight.
I predict this series to go to an ace match, where HeroMarine and Classic will finish their BO3. Even though WTL isn't too different from the gazillions of online cups HeroMarine has played in, I give Classic and Twisted Fairy the slight edge due to WTL experience.
Prediction: Twisted Fairy 4 - 3 OFFSYDE Esports
Shopify Rebellion vs BASILISK
BASILISK continue to rise up through the standings, one Serral-powered victory at a time. A win against Shopify this week would see them rise as far as third place.
Serral vs Harstem is firmly established as one of the most lopsided matchups in SC2 history, with Serral currently on a 31 map winning streak over the last seven years. Spoiler alert: it's going to become a 33 map winning streak.
ShoWTimE vs ByuN was always going to be a match-up draw the BASILISK was okay with, but with die Mauer's recent run of strong tournament performances, they might even hope for a 2-0 here. I'm going to be more conservative and say he has a good chance of taking a map, which would still be a satisfactory result for BASILISK.
Reynor almost got bamboozled into a 1-1 against Rex two weeks ago, and will need to be on the lookout for more trickery from Scarlett. If the 50/50 curse doesn't strike, he should really finish the series with a 2-0 here, but you never know with Reynor in the WTL regular season.
I could see Shopify forcing an ace match if things go well, but with the cushion of Serral vs Harstem in the opener, a clean BASILISK win is the most likely outcome.
Prediction: BASILISK 4 - 2 Shopify Rebellion
Credits and acknowledgements Writer: Nakajin
Editor: Wax
Stats: Aligulac.com & Liquipedia
Images: SCBoy
